In 2004 (Bush/Kerry), the first year the NY Times took this data in the exit poll… the bottom two income brackets voted like this:
Under $30,000 —– D 60% – R 40%
$30k – $49.9K —– D 50% – R 49%
By education, the only bracket with a real win was those with post-graduate education – D 55% – R 44%
All other bracket were ties.
In 2008, the 1st Obama race, the hope factor was hella high.
Under $30,000 —– D 65% – R 32% (because of numbers involved it’s a swing of 13%)
$30k – $49.9K —– D 55% – R 43% (a swing of 11%)
Democrats won percentage increases in all classes of education. HOwever among those with no HS diploma, there was an increase of 27%.
Very roughly speaking 25 percent more poor, uneducated people voted for Obama than Kerry. This class of voters is not racists. Get that out of your head.
Regarding the Messianic factor, you will remember that there was literally dancing in the street. I can vouch for it happening in Western NY as well as in SE Canada. The night after the election, a friend of mine made the tasty vanilla cakes to celebrate, decorating them all with the Obama “O” logo. As I passed the cake to the party next to me I said, “The Body of Obama…” However, the Messianic factor was still so high that my sarcasm was perceived and was not well received.
Already in 2012 (the 2nd Obama race), though, things had started to cool.
$30k – $49.9K —– D 57% – R 42% (a 3% Blue advance – the only wage category to go more blue)
The highest More Red category was those earning more than $200K – which saw a 16% increase over Obama 1.
Apart from that 30 – 49.9 K category, (I’m thinking that is probably late Xers/Early Wage-earning Millennials there) everyone else had already begun to grow weary of the all-Hope still-hopeless world in which they found themselves. Lots more wars in places previously unimagined, a new tax of huge proportions (sold as “Obamacare”) and still inflation, and wage stagnation. ( This last means that while jobs and wages had increased numerically, they did not increase in real value: the dollar buys less and increases have not kept apace.)
$30k – $49.9K —– D 51% – R 42% – 6% redder than before.
By way of comparison, the next two categories went blue by single digits. Above $200k there was no change.
But the folks in this poll need to find an answer. If Trump blows them off, now that they’ve elected him, the next time someone extends a carrot in hand, they might come back with only a stump.